Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →29.5%
St Pauli
31.2%
Draw
39.4%
Freiburg
Expected Goals (xG)
0.99
St Pauli
vs
1.19
Freiburg
Markets
BTTS44.6%
Over 0.587.6%
Over 1.564.9%
Over 2.537.1%
Over 3.517.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.3%
0-1
12.5%
0-0
12.4%
1-0
10.2%
0-2
8.0%
1-2
7.9%
2-1
6.6%
2-0
5.6%
2-2
3.9%
0-3
3.2%
1-3
3.1%
3-1
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).