Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →31.2%
Estrela
28.5%
Draw
40.3%
Vitória Guimarães
Expected Goals (xG)
1.18
Estrela
vs
1.37
Vitória Guimarães
Markets
BTTS52.7%
Over 0.591.3%
Over 1.573.4%
Over 2.547.0%
Over 3.525.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.6%
0-1
9.7%
0-0
8.7%
1-2
8.7%
1-0
8.2%
2-1
7.4%
0-2
7.3%
2-0
5.4%
2-2
5.1%
1-3
4.0%
0-3
3.4%
3-1
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).