Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →62.0%
Villarreal
19.9%
Draw
18.0%
Sociedad
Expected Goals (xG)
2.23
Villarreal
vs
1.13
Sociedad
Markets
BTTS60.7%
Over 0.596.4%
Over 1.585.1%
Over 2.565.3%
Over 3.543.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1
9.8%
1-1
8.9%
2-0
8.6%
1-0
7.5%
3-1
7.3%
3-0
6.4%
2-2
5.5%
1-2
4.9%
3-2
4.1%
4-1
4.1%
0-1
3.7%
0-0
3.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).