Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →29.1%
Manchester City
29.5%
Draw
41.4%
Arsenal
Expected Goals (xG)
1.17
Manchester City
vs
1.44
Arsenal
Markets
BTTS54.4%
Over 0.591.0%
Over 1.575.2%
Over 2.548.5%
Over 3.526.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.1%
0-0
9.0%
1-2
8.9%
0-1
8.8%
0-2
7.6%
2-1
7.3%
1-0
6.9%
2-2
5.2%
2-0
5.1%
1-3
4.3%
0-3
3.6%
3-1
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).