Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →84.3%
Birmingham
8.3%
Draw
7.4%
Newcastle
Expected Goals (xG)
4.51
Birmingham
vs
1.57
Newcastle
Markets
BTTS78.3%
Over 0.599.8%
Over 1.598.3%
Over 2.594.1%
Over 3.585.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
4-1
6.2%
5-1
5.6%
3-1
5.5%
4-2
4.9%
5-2
4.4%
3-2
4.3%
4-0
4.0%
2-1
3.7%
5-0
3.6%
3-0
3.5%
2-2
2.9%
4-3
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).