Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →45.2%
Guimaraes
26.5%
Draw
28.3%
Nacional
Expected Goals (xG)
1.34
Guimaraes
vs
0.99
Nacional
Markets
BTTS45.8%
Over 0.590.8%
Over 1.567.0%
Over 2.541.1%
Over 3.520.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.6%
1-1
12.4%
0-1
10.2%
0-0
9.2%
2-0
8.7%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
6.4%
0-2
4.8%
2-2
4.3%
3-0
3.9%
3-1
3.8%
1-3
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).