Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →28.7%
Brighton
28.4%
Draw
42.9%
Manchester City
Expected Goals (xG)
1.23
Brighton
vs
1.54
Manchester City
Markets
BTTS57.2%
Over 0.592.1%
Over 1.578.0%
Over 2.552.4%
Over 3.530.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.5%
1-2
9.1%
0-1
8.0%
0-0
7.9%
0-2
7.4%
2-1
7.3%
1-0
6.0%
2-2
5.6%
2-0
4.7%
1-3
4.7%
0-3
3.8%
3-1
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).