Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →48.3%
Manchester City
29.2%
Draw
22.5%
Brighton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.22
Manchester City
vs
0.73
Brighton
Markets
BTTS36.1%
Over 0.586.2%
Over 1.557.6%
Over 2.531.0%
Over 3.513.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
17.8%
0-0
13.8%
1-1
12.3%
0-1
10.8%
2-0
10.6%
2-1
7.7%
1-2
4.6%
3-0
4.3%
0-2
3.8%
3-1
3.1%
2-2
2.8%
4-0
1.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).