Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →4.8%
Southampton
13.7%
Draw
81.5%
Manchester City
Expected Goals (xG)
0.60
Southampton
vs
2.76
Manchester City
Markets
BTTS43.1%
Over 0.595.7%
Over 1.585.7%
Over 2.565.2%
Over 3.543.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-2
13.2%
0-3
12.2%
0-1
8.8%
0-4
8.4%
1-2
7.9%
1-3
7.3%
1-1
6.6%
1-4
5.0%
0-5
4.6%
0-0
4.3%
1-5
2.8%
2-2
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).