Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →28.8%
Tondela
31.5%
Draw
39.7%
Vitória Guimarães
Expected Goals (xG)
0.96
Tondela
vs
1.17
Vitória Guimarães
Markets
BTTS43.6%
Over 0.587.1%
Over 1.563.9%
Over 2.535.9%
Over 3.516.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.4%
0-0
12.9%
0-1
12.9%
1-0
10.3%
0-2
8.2%
1-2
7.8%
2-1
6.4%
2-0
5.5%
2-2
3.8%
0-3
3.2%
1-3
3.1%
3-1
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).