Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →69.7%
Dortmund
18.2%
Draw
12.1%
Freiburg
Expected Goals (xG)
2.44
Dortmund
vs
0.94
Freiburg
Markets
BTTS56.3%
Over 0.596.0%
Over 1.585.7%
Over 2.565.7%
Over 3.543.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
10.1%
2-1
9.5%
1-1
8.4%
3-0
8.2%
3-1
7.7%
1-0
7.7%
4-0
5.0%
4-1
4.7%
2-2
4.5%
0-0
4.0%
1-2
3.7%
3-2
3.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).