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DHT: 21

28 Dec 2025 · 18:00

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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32.8%
Sp Braga
27.3%
Draw
39.9%
Benfica

Expected Goals (xG)

1.30

Sp Braga

vs
1.45

Benfica

Markets

BTTS56.6%
Over 0.592.7%
Over 1.576.9%
Over 2.551.8%
Over 3.529.6%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
13.0%
1-2
8.8%
0-1
8.4%
2-1
7.8%
1-0
7.4%
0-0
7.3%
0-2
6.8%
2-2
5.7%
2-0
5.4%
1-3
4.2%
3-1
3.4%
0-3
3.3%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).