Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →32.8%
Sp Braga
27.3%
Draw
39.9%
Benfica
Expected Goals (xG)
1.30
Sp Braga
vs
1.45
Benfica
Markets
BTTS56.6%
Over 0.592.7%
Over 1.576.9%
Over 2.551.8%
Over 3.529.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.0%
1-2
8.8%
0-1
8.4%
2-1
7.8%
1-0
7.4%
0-0
7.3%
0-2
6.8%
2-2
5.7%
2-0
5.4%
1-3
4.2%
3-1
3.4%
0-3
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).