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AHT: 01

19 Jan 2026 · 20:15

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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25.3%
Estrela
22.4%
Draw
52.3%
Estoril

Expected Goals (xG)

1.42

Estrela

vs
2.09

Estoril

Markets

BTTS67.2%
Over 0.596.3%
Over 1.587.3%
Over 2.568.2%
Over 3.546.7%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
9.5%
1-2
9.3%
2-2
6.6%
0-2
6.5%
1-3
6.5%
2-1
6.3%
0-1
5.5%
2-3
4.6%
0-3
4.5%
0-0
3.7%
1-0
3.5%
1-4
3.4%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).