⚽ FootballData
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HHT: 10CSV

12 Apr 2016

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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67.9%
Middlesbrough
20.8%
Draw
11.3%
Reading

Expected Goals (xG)

2.06

Middlesbrough

vs
0.72

Reading

Markets

BTTS45.6%
Over 0.593.1%
Over 1.577.3%
Over 2.552.7%
Over 3.530.4%

Most Likely Scorelines

2-0
13.1%
1-0
12.1%
1-1
9.9%
2-1
9.5%
3-0
9.0%
0-0
6.9%
3-1
6.5%
4-0
4.6%
0-1
3.8%
2-2
3.4%
4-1
3.4%
1-2
3.3%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).