Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →32.6%
Derby
28.6%
Draw
38.9%
Middlesbrough
Expected Goals (xG)
1.22
Derby
vs
1.36
Middlesbrough
Markets
BTTS53.5%
Over 0.591.4%
Over 1.573.9%
Over 2.547.7%
Over 3.526.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.6%
0-1
9.2%
0-0
8.6%
1-2
8.5%
1-0
8.2%
2-1
7.7%
0-2
7.0%
2-0
5.7%
2-2
5.2%
1-3
3.9%
0-3
3.2%
3-1
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).