Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →52.3%
Chelsea
25.0%
Draw
22.6%
Brentford
Expected Goals (xG)
1.92
Chelsea
vs
1.22
Brentford
Markets
BTTS61.5%
Over 0.594.2%
Over 1.583.4%
Over 2.560.6%
Over 3.538.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.6%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
8.0%
1-0
6.9%
3-1
6.2%
1-2
6.2%
2-2
5.9%
0-0
5.8%
3-0
5.1%
0-1
3.9%
3-2
3.8%
0-2
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).