Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →78.2%
Derby
14.8%
Draw
7.0%
Shrewsbury
Expected Goals (xG)
2.22
Derby
vs
0.47
Shrewsbury
Markets
BTTS33.1%
Over 0.593.9%
Over 1.574.5%
Over 2.550.6%
Over 3.528.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
16.6%
1-0
15.6%
3-0
12.3%
2-1
7.9%
4-0
6.9%
1-1
6.5%
0-0
6.1%
3-1
5.9%
0-1
3.8%
4-1
3.3%
5-0
3.1%
2-2
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).