Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →37.6%
Watford
31.8%
Draw
30.6%
Stoke
Expected Goals (xG)
1.14
Watford
vs
1.00
Stoke
Markets
BTTS44.1%
Over 0.587.1%
Over 1.564.1%
Over 2.536.1%
Over 3.516.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.5%
0-0
12.9%
1-0
12.3%
0-1
10.7%
2-0
7.6%
2-1
7.6%
1-2
6.7%
0-2
5.9%
2-2
3.8%
3-0
2.9%
3-1
2.9%
1-3
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).