Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →81.7%
Sp Lisbon
13.7%
Draw
4.6%
Santa Clara
Expected Goals (xG)
2.28
Sp Lisbon
vs
0.35
Santa Clara
Markets
BTTS26.5%
Over 0.593.1%
Over 1.573.7%
Over 2.549.1%
Over 3.527.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
18.7%
1-0
16.6%
3-0
14.2%
4-0
8.1%
0-0
6.9%
2-1
6.6%
1-1
5.5%
3-1
5.0%
5-0
3.7%
4-1
2.9%
0-1
2.8%
5-1
1.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).