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27 Sept 2025 · 15:30

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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47.8%
Santa Clara
32.9%
Draw
19.3%
Tondela

Expected Goals (xG)

1.17

Santa Clara

vs
0.64

Tondela

Markets

BTTS33.7%
Over 0.582.8%
Over 1.555.2%
Over 2.527.4%
Over 3.511.1%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-0
18.1%
0-0
17.2%
1-1
13.2%
2-0
11.2%
0-1
9.5%
2-1
7.2%
3-0
4.4%
1-2
3.9%
0-2
3.4%
3-1
2.8%
2-2
2.3%
4-0
1.3%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).