Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →47.9%
Casa Pia
28.1%
Draw
24.1%
Rio Ave
Expected Goals (xG)
1.49
Casa Pia
vs
0.98
Rio Ave
Markets
BTTS49.4%
Over 0.590.6%
Over 1.571.6%
Over 2.544.8%
Over 3.523.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.3%
1-0
11.6%
0-0
9.4%
2-0
9.3%
2-1
9.2%
0-1
7.4%
1-2
6.1%
3-0
4.6%
3-1
4.6%
2-2
4.5%
0-2
4.1%
3-2
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).