Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →39.3%
Setubal
27.5%
Draw
33.2%
Guimaraes
Expected Goals (xG)
1.19
Setubal
vs
1.07
Guimaraes
Markets
BTTS45.0%
Over 0.590.1%
Over 1.565.3%
Over 2.539.2%
Over 3.519.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.0%
1-1
12.7%
0-1
11.7%
0-0
9.9%
2-1
7.9%
2-0
7.4%
1-2
7.1%
0-2
6.0%
2-2
4.2%
3-1
3.1%
3-0
2.9%
1-3
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).