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21 Apr 2026 · 18:45

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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28.0%
Oxford
29.1%
Draw
42.9%
Wrexham

Expected Goals (xG)

1.07

Oxford

vs
1.38

Wrexham

Markets

BTTS50.2%
Over 0.590.3%
Over 1.571.3%
Over 2.544.3%
Over 3.523.2%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
13.8%
0-1
10.8%
0-0
9.7%
1-2
8.8%
0-2
8.2%
1-0
8.2%
2-1
6.8%
2-0
4.9%
2-2
4.7%
1-3
4.0%
0-3
3.8%
3-1
2.4%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).