Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →33.7%
Ath Bilbao
26.4%
Draw
39.9%
Villarreal
Expected Goals (xG)
1.30
Ath Bilbao
vs
1.44
Villarreal
Markets
BTTS55.9%
Over 0.593.1%
Over 1.576.2%
Over 2.551.6%
Over 3.529.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.5%
0-1
8.9%
1-2
8.7%
1-0
8.0%
2-1
7.9%
0-0
6.9%
0-2
6.7%
2-2
5.7%
2-0
5.5%
1-3
4.2%
3-1
3.4%
0-3
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).