Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →21.5%
Lugo
30.5%
Draw
48.1%
Vallecano
Expected Goals (xG)
0.68
Lugo
vs
1.18
Vallecano
Markets
BTTS34.2%
Over 0.584.7%
Over 1.555.5%
Over 2.528.7%
Over 3.512.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
18.4%
0-0
15.3%
1-1
12.4%
0-2
10.8%
1-0
10.7%
1-2
7.4%
2-1
4.3%
0-3
4.3%
2-0
3.6%
1-3
2.9%
2-2
2.5%
0-4
1.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).