Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →55.8%
Manchester City
26.6%
Draw
17.6%
Crystal Palace
Expected Goals (xG)
1.74
Manchester City
vs
0.90
Crystal Palace
Markets
BTTS50.4%
Over 0.591.3%
Over 1.575.6%
Over 2.549.2%
Over 3.527.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.7%
1-0
10.9%
2-0
10.8%
2-1
9.7%
0-0
8.7%
3-0
6.3%
3-1
5.7%
1-2
5.0%
0-1
4.9%
2-2
4.4%
0-2
2.9%
4-0
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).