Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →29.2%
Spal
26.6%
Draw
44.2%
Genoa
Expected Goals (xG)
1.06
Spal
vs
1.37
Genoa
Markets
BTTS48.5%
Over 0.591.4%
Over 1.569.6%
Over 2.543.8%
Over 3.522.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.6%
0-1
12.3%
1-0
9.5%
1-2
8.8%
0-0
8.6%
0-2
8.3%
2-1
6.8%
2-0
4.9%
2-2
4.6%
1-3
4.0%
0-3
3.8%
3-1
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).