Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →60.1%
Numancia
25.9%
Draw
14.0%
Lugo
Expected Goals (xG)
1.49
Numancia
vs
0.56
Lugo
Markets
BTTS33.2%
Over 0.587.3%
Over 1.560.7%
Over 2.533.7%
Over 3.515.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
19.2%
2-0
14.3%
0-0
12.7%
1-1
10.7%
2-1
8.0%
0-1
7.3%
3-0
7.1%
3-1
4.0%
1-2
3.0%
4-0
2.6%
2-2
2.3%
0-2
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).