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AHT: 11

10 May 2025 · 18:30

Basel

Away

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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39.0%
Lugano
31.0%
Draw
30.0%
Basel

Expected Goals (xG)

1.37

Lugano

vs
1.18

Basel

Markets

BTTS54.0%
Over 0.590.0%
Over 1.574.6%
Over 2.547.0%
Over 3.525.4%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
14.8%
0-0
10.0%
2-1
8.7%
1-0
8.4%
1-2
7.4%
2-0
7.3%
0-1
7.0%
0-2
5.4%
2-2
5.1%
3-1
4.0%
3-0
3.4%
1-3
2.9%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).