Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →25.8%
Belenenses
27.8%
Draw
46.3%
Moreirense
Expected Goals (xG)
0.86
Belenenses
vs
1.26
Moreirense
Markets
BTTS40.7%
Over 0.588.6%
Over 1.562.0%
Over 2.535.6%
Over 3.516.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
15.7%
1-1
12.4%
0-0
11.4%
1-0
10.9%
0-2
9.6%
1-2
8.2%
2-1
5.6%
2-0
4.4%
0-3
4.0%
2-2
3.5%
1-3
3.4%
3-1
1.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).