Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →48.1%
Luton
29.3%
Draw
22.6%
Barnsley
Expected Goals (xG)
1.38
Luton
vs
0.87
Barnsley
Markets
BTTS44.4%
Over 0.588.6%
Over 1.566.7%
Over 2.539.1%
Over 3.519.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.6%
1-1
13.6%
0-0
11.4%
2-0
10.1%
2-1
8.7%
0-1
8.2%
1-2
5.5%
3-0
4.7%
3-1
4.0%
0-2
4.0%
2-2
3.8%
3-2
1.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).