Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →33.6%
Leeds
28.5%
Draw
37.8%
Aston Villa
Expected Goals (xG)
1.35
Leeds
vs
1.45
Aston Villa
Markets
BTTS58.4%
Over 0.592.3%
Over 1.578.5%
Over 2.553.1%
Over 3.530.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.6%
1-2
8.6%
2-1
8.1%
0-0
7.7%
0-1
7.1%
1-0
6.6%
0-2
6.4%
2-2
5.8%
2-0
5.6%
1-3
4.2%
3-1
3.6%
0-3
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).