Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →43.0%
Derby
27.2%
Draw
29.8%
Sheffield Weds
Expected Goals (xG)
1.19
Derby
vs
0.94
Sheffield Weds
Markets
BTTS41.2%
Over 0.589.2%
Over 1.561.7%
Over 2.535.8%
Over 3.516.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.3%
0-1
12.2%
1-1
12.2%
0-0
10.8%
2-0
8.5%
2-1
7.9%
1-2
6.2%
0-2
5.2%
2-2
3.7%
3-0
3.4%
3-1
3.2%
1-3
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).