Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →39.6%
Union Berlin
27.7%
Draw
32.7%
Freiburg
Expected Goals (xG)
1.40
Union Berlin
vs
1.25
Freiburg
Markets
BTTS54.5%
Over 0.592.1%
Over 1.575.0%
Over 2.549.3%
Over 3.527.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.2%
1-0
9.1%
2-1
8.6%
0-1
8.0%
0-0
7.9%
1-2
7.7%
2-0
6.9%
0-2
5.5%
2-2
5.4%
3-1
4.0%
3-0
3.2%
1-3
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).