Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →60.0%
Derby
25.1%
Draw
14.9%
Stevenage
Expected Goals (xG)
1.44
Derby
vs
0.55
Stevenage
Markets
BTTS31.2%
Over 0.587.1%
Over 1.558.0%
Over 2.531.9%
Over 3.514.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
20.7%
2-0
14.2%
0-0
12.9%
1-1
9.9%
0-1
8.4%
2-1
7.8%
3-0
6.8%
3-1
3.7%
1-2
2.9%
4-0
2.4%
2-2
2.1%
0-2
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).