Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →42.1%
Sp Lisbon
31.0%
Draw
26.9%
Porto
Expected Goals (xG)
1.05
Sp Lisbon
vs
0.77
Porto
Markets
BTTS34.5%
Over 0.584.5%
Over 1.554.0%
Over 2.527.7%
Over 3.511.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
17.5%
0-0
15.5%
0-1
13.0%
1-1
12.5%
2-0
8.9%
2-1
6.9%
1-2
5.1%
0-2
4.8%
3-0
3.1%
2-2
2.7%
3-1
2.4%
1-3
1.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).