Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →54.5%
Derby
26.1%
Draw
19.4%
Luton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.65
Derby
vs
0.89
Luton
Markets
BTTS48.5%
Over 0.591.3%
Over 1.573.0%
Over 2.546.7%
Over 3.525.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.4%
1-0
12.2%
2-0
10.7%
2-1
9.6%
0-0
8.7%
0-1
6.2%
3-0
5.9%
3-1
5.3%
1-2
5.2%
2-2
4.3%
0-2
3.1%
4-0
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).