Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →21.5%
Luton
27.5%
Draw
51.0%
Middlesbrough
Expected Goals (xG)
0.91
Luton
vs
1.54
Middlesbrough
Markets
BTTS47.9%
Over 0.590.5%
Over 1.571.1%
Over 2.544.3%
Over 3.523.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.0%
0-1
12.4%
0-2
10.2%
0-0
9.5%
1-2
9.3%
1-0
7.0%
2-1
5.5%
0-3
5.2%
1-3
4.8%
2-2
4.2%
2-0
3.6%
2-3
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).