⚽ FootballData
1 – 3
AHT: 02

27 Sept 2025 · 14:00

Dixon-Coles Prediction

View all models →
21.6%
Morpeth Town
19.6%
Draw
58.8%
Southport

Expected Goals (xG)

1.26

Morpeth Town

vs
2.19

Southport

Markets

BTTS63.4%
Over 0.597.1%
Over 1.585.6%
Over 2.567.0%
Over 3.545.3%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-2
9.6%
1-1
8.5%
0-2
7.6%
0-1
7.2%
1-3
7.0%
2-2
6.0%
0-3
5.6%
2-1
5.5%
2-3
4.4%
1-0
4.3%
1-4
3.8%
0-4
3.0%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).