Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →8.2%
Southampton
18.3%
Draw
73.5%
Newcastle
Expected Goals (xG)
0.71
Southampton
vs
2.38
Newcastle
Markets
BTTS47.3%
Over 0.594.4%
Over 1.582.5%
Over 2.559.8%
Over 3.537.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-2
12.8%
0-3
10.2%
0-1
9.7%
1-2
9.2%
1-1
8.7%
1-3
7.3%
0-4
6.1%
0-0
5.6%
1-4
4.3%
2-2
3.3%
0-5
2.9%
2-1
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).