Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →46.8%
Monza
29.6%
Draw
23.6%
Lecce
Expected Goals (xG)
1.41
Monza
vs
0.93
Lecce
Markets
BTTS47.0%
Over 0.589.1%
Over 1.569.1%
Over 2.541.4%
Over 3.520.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.9%
1-0
12.3%
0-0
10.9%
2-0
9.6%
2-1
8.9%
0-1
7.7%
1-2
5.9%
3-0
4.5%
3-1
4.2%
0-2
4.2%
2-2
4.1%
3-2
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).