Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →82.4%
Notts County
12.3%
Draw
5.3%
Sutton
Expected Goals (xG)
2.92
Notts County
vs
0.67
Sutton
Markets
BTTS46.4%
Over 0.596.8%
Over 1.587.7%
Over 2.569.4%
Over 3.548.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
11.8%
3-0
11.5%
4-0
8.4%
2-1
7.9%
1-0
7.7%
3-1
7.7%
1-1
5.9%
4-1
5.6%
5-0
4.9%
5-1
3.3%
0-0
3.2%
2-2
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).