Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →83.1%
Porto
12.3%
Draw
4.6%
Casa Pia
Expected Goals (xG)
2.48
Porto
vs
0.41
Casa Pia
Markets
BTTS30.5%
Over 0.594.7%
Over 1.578.2%
Over 2.555.2%
Over 3.532.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
17.1%
3-0
14.2%
1-0
14.0%
4-0
8.8%
2-1
7.0%
3-1
5.8%
1-1
5.4%
0-0
5.3%
5-0
4.4%
4-1
3.6%
0-1
2.5%
5-1
1.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).