Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →32.1%
Villarreal
24.6%
Draw
43.3%
Real Madrid
Expected Goals (xG)
1.40
Villarreal
vs
1.66
Real Madrid
Markets
BTTS61.4%
Over 0.594.9%
Over 1.581.3%
Over 2.559.0%
Over 3.536.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.3%
1-2
9.0%
2-1
7.6%
0-1
7.4%
0-2
6.5%
2-2
6.3%
1-0
6.2%
0-0
5.1%
1-3
5.0%
2-0
4.6%
0-3
3.6%
3-1
3.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).