Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →60.0%
Nacional
22.9%
Draw
17.0%
Chaves
Expected Goals (xG)
1.68
Nacional
vs
0.75
Chaves
Markets
BTTS42.6%
Over 0.591.7%
Over 1.569.4%
Over 2.543.9%
Over 3.522.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.2%
2-0
12.4%
1-1
10.6%
2-1
9.3%
0-0
8.3%
0-1
7.1%
3-0
6.9%
3-1
5.2%
1-2
4.2%
2-2
3.5%
4-0
2.9%
0-2
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).