Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →55.6%
Cheltenham
22.7%
Draw
21.7%
Carlisle
Expected Goals (xG)
1.63
Cheltenham
vs
0.90
Carlisle
Markets
BTTS46.8%
Over 0.593.0%
Over 1.571.0%
Over 2.546.5%
Over 3.525.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.9%
1-1
10.7%
2-0
10.6%
2-1
9.5%
0-1
8.1%
0-0
7.0%
3-0
5.8%
1-2
5.3%
3-1
5.2%
2-2
4.3%
0-2
3.2%
4-0
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).