Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →68.4%
Spartak Moskva
20.0%
Draw
11.6%
Orenburg
Expected Goals (xG)
2.29
Spartak Moskva
vs
0.86
Orenburg
Markets
BTTS53.0%
Over 0.594.7%
Over 1.583.2%
Over 2.560.9%
Over 3.538.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
11.2%
2-1
9.7%
1-1
9.5%
1-0
8.8%
3-0
8.5%
3-1
7.4%
0-0
5.3%
4-0
4.9%
4-1
4.2%
2-2
4.2%
1-2
3.7%
3-2
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).