Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →46.6%
Malaga
21.8%
Draw
31.6%
Castellon
Expected Goals (xG)
1.92
Malaga
vs
1.55
Castellon
Markets
BTTS67.2%
Over 0.597.0%
Over 1.586.1%
Over 2.567.5%
Over 3.545.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
9.1%
2-1
8.9%
1-2
7.2%
2-2
6.9%
1-0
6.0%
2-0
5.7%
3-1
5.7%
0-1
4.9%
3-2
4.4%
0-2
3.7%
1-3
3.7%
3-0
3.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).