Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →52.2%
Derby
26.8%
Draw
21.0%
West Brom
Expected Goals (xG)
1.59
Derby
vs
0.93
West Brom
Markets
BTTS49.0%
Over 0.591.1%
Over 1.572.5%
Over 2.546.1%
Over 3.524.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.7%
1-0
12.0%
2-0
10.2%
2-1
9.5%
0-0
8.9%
0-1
6.6%
1-2
5.5%
3-0
5.4%
3-1
5.0%
2-2
4.4%
0-2
3.4%
3-2
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).