Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →35.6%
Bristol City
28.6%
Draw
35.8%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
1.29
Bristol City
vs
1.30
Derby
Markets
BTTS53.7%
Over 0.591.4%
Over 1.574.1%
Over 2.547.8%
Over 3.526.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.6%
0-1
8.7%
1-0
8.7%
0-0
8.6%
1-2
8.2%
2-1
8.1%
0-2
6.3%
2-0
6.3%
2-2
5.3%
1-3
3.5%
3-1
3.5%
0-3
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).